Exodus

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Exodus
 Asura.Benchiro
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By Asura.Benchiro 2023-07-27 13:30:54
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I mean, it's midway 2023 and the game is still ON.

Did you really expect the party to go on and on till the like break of dawn?

Just remember the fun times you had, there's been doomsayers since 14 was initially announced over 10 years ago.

Let's go get some waffles.

And I'll keep my avatar. Nothing shocks me anyway.
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By Dodik 2023-07-27 14:04:45
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Devs have a history of overly complicated mechanics that the player base does anything to not have to bother with.

If history is any indication players will eventually get buffed to the point they will again be able to mostly ignore mechanics and kill quickly.

In this case that might be hard to do since no new content.. which leaves us with a pile of doodoo in the shape of useless leftover upgrade stones with nothing to use them on.

Idk, I smell nerfs coming. Oh I am sorry I mean "system changes" and unintended issues with metals/seals not having their effectiveness correctly applied.
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By Taint 2023-07-27 14:52:16
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JP are livid. We will see changes, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in August.
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By Rips 2023-07-27 14:53:46
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I’d expect another (small) bump for master trials. But that’s it.

Enjoy the ride if you’re still enjoying it folks.
 Carbuncle.Nynja
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By Carbuncle.Nynja 2023-07-27 15:00:29
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Nah
They dont care about NA being pissed, but if the JP playerbase is on the verge of rioting, there will be changes.
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By 2023-07-27 15:04:43
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By zixxer 2023-07-27 15:07:18
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I did try to enjoy other games in the past but the new formula for some games are just garbage. For example, I loved Destiny. You bought the game and you experience the full game.

But now some of todays newer games (Destiny 2), you buy the game at full pop. Then every year, they release a "season" to which people need to buy to keep up with the Joneses. I know you don't need to get the next season but if it's a community then you're compelled to get it because of your friends or whatever.
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By Shichishito 2023-07-27 15:50:33
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Taint said: »
JP are livid. We will see changes, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in August.
Carbuncle.Nynja said: »
Nah
They dont care about NA being pissed, but if the JP playerbase is on the verge of rioting, there will be changes.
I wouldn't drench my panties just yet boys.
Current business meta is set extremely anti consumer goals, amplify by XXX%, release product and see how the customer reacts.

If the customer swallows the turd = yay they just overshot expectations.
If the customer yells "***!" while swallowing the turd = they overshot expectations + got free advertisment.
If the customer refuses to swallow the turd they revert to their original goal, act like they went above and beyond to meet the customers expectations = they still get what they aimed for + a reputation bonus.
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By NotInspctrgdget 2023-07-27 16:25:51
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"Final Fantasy XI is dying!!1!"

- the same idiots, every year, since 2010.
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By NotInspctrgdget 2023-07-27 16:26:19
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Odin.Moonja said: »
I’m just waiting for my sub to run out. Not adding any more crysta next month. I’ve got about a week left. Then poof!

Good riddance.
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By Pantafernando 2023-07-27 16:44:07
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Asura.Daleterrence said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Every year the number of players goes down. it goes up. it goes down.

If you got 5 minutes to input the data for a chart, there it is. 5/8/21-today

It's mostly organic decay, but it's steepened.

Relevant info for highes and lows
Friday, December 25, 2020, at 12:00 a.m. (PST) to Friday, January 15, 2021, at the same hour.
Friday, May 14, 2021, at 1:00 a.m. (PDT) to Monday, May 31, at the same hour.
Friday, August 13, 2021, at 1:00 a.m. (PDT) to Tuesday, August 31, 2021 at the same hour.
Friday, December 17, 2021, at 12:00 a.m. (PST) to Wednesday, January 5, 2022, at the same hour.
Friday, May 13, 2022, at 1:00 a.m. (PDT) to Tuesday, May 31, at the same hour.
Friday, August 5, 2022, at 1:00 a.m. (PDT) to Monday, August 22, 2022, at the same hour.
Friday, December 23, 2022, at 12:00 a.m. (PST) to Thursday, January 5, 2023, at the same hour.
Friday, May 12, 2023, at 1:00 a.m. (PDT) to Monday, May 22, 2023, at the same hour.

It's not perfect (probably missing some labels with correlating events) but it's 4 AM.


In a sense, this is quite good considering this game receives zero advertisement.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2023-07-27 16:50:31
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The organic x% decline year over year isn't "bad" considering, yes.

That is still dying, to be clear. You can be dying for decades. But there is a clear shift for 2023. Rapid decay. I asked r00ks to see if we can look at sales month over month so you can see just how dire it is. AH sales are slowing considerably. I just never thought to track them. Site tracks every AH sale and I'd love to isolate the totals for each month to track the fall.
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By Shichishito 2023-07-27 16:59:26
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zixxer said: »
I did try to enjoy other games in the past but the new formula for some games are just garbage. For example, I loved Destiny. You bought the game and you experience the full game.

But now some of todays newer games (Destiny 2), you buy the game at full pop. Then every year, they release a "season" to which people need to buy to keep up with the Joneses.
Couple of years ago you could make a decent bargain waiting for price reductions or a bundle deal. Nowadays almost all offers that appear to be a good deal upon first sight turn out to have a rattail of DLC attached to it that add up to a full price title even tho the game is already 5+ years old.
Occasionally the DLC content feels like it was cut from the original title to be sold seperately, sometimes even with leftover files in the vanilla download/disk hinting the fact.

Though it's odd that something like DLC upcharges can irk FFXI players, considering we were or still are completely content with paying 12.95 + extras every month for basically nothing.
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By Draylo 2023-07-27 17:19:45
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We did go thru something similar after ROV though, I distinctly remember people quitting left and right and saying the game was done. I'd be interested to see if the pop dropped off then too and it wasn't really discussed.
 Cerberus.Tikal
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By Cerberus.Tikal 2023-07-27 17:43:33
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
The organic x% decline year over year isn't "bad" considering, yes.

That is still dying, to be clear. You can be dying for decades. But there is a clear shift for 2023. Rapid decay. I asked r00ks to see if we can look at sales month over month so you can see just how dire it is. AH sales are slowing considerably. I just never thought to track them. Site tracks every AH sale and I'd love to isolate the totals for each month to track the fall.
I think the game's economy will likely accentuate the exodus if it already isn't. The population is becoming too thin on smaller servers, which will further strangle the player base's desire to play as commodities become rarer.
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By Shichishito 2023-07-27 18:51:38
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NotInspctrgdget said: »
"Final Fantasy XI is dying!!1!"

- the same idiots, every year, since 2010.
Asura.Eiryl said: »
You can be dying for decades.
The three longest reported cases of vegetative state or coma i could find were ~37-42 years.
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By Dodik 2023-07-27 20:00:43
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Technically we're all slowly dying from the day we are born.
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By 2023-07-27 22:02:35
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 Shiva.Eightball
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By Shiva.Eightball 2023-07-27 23:32:24
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Odin.Moonja said:

Glad I checked back to see I pissed off some ***!

This is literally the point of the internet.
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By Rips 2023-07-28 00:05:34
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I just did a double take at the graph. Am I understanding this correctly? In July of this year 75,000 characters - (characters, not accounts or people) - logged into to the servers?

Is that correct? It seems to high to be true. Even with multiboxing and mules.

I unsubbed in May. I had 196 characters logged in every month, so those are out and part of the dip, but 75K just seems way too high.
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By Shichishito 2023-07-28 01:14:35
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Rips said: »
Is that correct?
The way i see it the graph shows exactly 2 asymmetrical pairs of boobies and 3 bulgy wulgies, but what ever they did between may and jul 22 they should do more of.

Rips said: »
I had 196 characters logged in every month
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 Asura.Daleterrence
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By Asura.Daleterrence 2023-07-28 06:52:07
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Rips said: »
I just did a double take at the graph. Am I understanding this correctly? In July of this year 75,000 characters - (characters, not accounts or people) - logged into to the servers?

Is that correct? It seems to high to be true. Even with multiboxing and mules.

I unsubbed in May. I had 196 characters logged in every month, so those are out and part of the dip, but 75K just seems way too high.

Yeah I was wondering that myself, when I get a few minutes I probably need to look back and see wtf SE did that month, if anything.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2023-07-28 07:09:44
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It's any character that sold, or bought. That means any server jumper is double counted, and all the level 1 mules that log on once a week to sell 7 items are counted.

You would be saddened to learn just how many people have 15 mules they log in to sell a 1000 trash items they can't help but hoard. Cause 10k is better than dropping it.
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 Asura.Yottaxa
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By Asura.Yottaxa 2023-07-28 07:41:04
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Shichishito said: »
Rips said: »
Is that correct?
The way i see it the graph shows exactly 2 asymmetrical pairs of boobies and 3 bulgy wulgies, but what ever they did between may and jul 22 they should do more of.

Its worth pointing out:
May of 2022 Was the 20th Anniversary + All Campaigns + Free Login.
August of 2022 Was Sortie Release + Free Login.
Any time there is a free login campaign it would seem there are peeps who re-sub for a month or new players that sub for a month and bail.
Edit: If I'm not mistaken almost every bump on the graph is a free login campaign - right?
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2023-07-28 07:51:36
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Asura.Yottaxa said: »
Edit: If I'm not mistaken almost every bump on the graph is a free login campaign - right?

Yes, that's why I listed them. So no one would wonder what the bumps were from....
 Bismarck.Snprphnx
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By Bismarck.Snprphnx 2023-07-28 09:53:23
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If those numbers are an accurate accounting of unique user accounts, just basing off of the low end of 90,000 accounts, SE is still raking in about 1.26M per month in subs. And that’s not counting additional characters and wardrobes.
 Bahamut.Celebrindal
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By Bahamut.Celebrindal 2023-07-28 09:59:47
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Bismarck.Snprphnx said: »
If those numbers are an accurate accounting of unique user accounts, just basing off of the low end of 90,000 accounts, SE is still raking in about 1.26M per month in subs. And that’s not counting additional characters and wardrobes.

pretty sure one of the first comments when that graph was posted was "this is characters", not accounts. A lot of those aren't $12.95/month plus addons, its $1.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2023-07-28 11:12:29
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Quote:
Minimum FFXI income: $119,684.95/month ($1,436,219.40/year) from 4441 accounts

The minimum income value is determined by assuming the bare minimum amount of income Square-Enix would have to receive to obtain these active character numbers. The following assumptions are made:

No one has the extra Mog Wardrobes
Active characters are grouped into batches of 16, as secondary character slots/mules are cheaper than new accounts

That is the assumed absolute bare minimum. Every player has zero wardrobes and has 15 dollar mules.
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By Rips 2023-07-28 14:43:12
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
It's any character that sold, or bought. That means any server jumper is double counted

Okay, now this makes more sense.

I knew people who did this to make some extra cash in game who didn't believe in RMTing. And then there's the hot shot RMT'ers who do this themselves - the ones with big operations.

This 75k~ish number seems a bit more plausible now.
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